Thug Life (Tim) by Tim Horras

One possible scenario as to what the future will look like in the coming years (which is gaining increasing popularity) comes from Russian blogger Dmitry Orlov. I would highly recommend anybody interested in the future of this country read some of his essays, for example, his "Social Collapse Best Practices". Essentially, Orlov's thesis is simple. In fact, it's almost facile in nature and lacks a solid theoretical basis. [1] At the same time, it offers to me a much more persuasive vision of what sorts of situations the course of events than I've seen from any mainstream media sources, who still stubbornly refuse to imagine a world in which an advanced capitalist economy ceases to function. For this reason alone, it merits attention. [2]

Orlov's premise is that the United States as a superpower (he seems to shy away from using the term "imperialism") is in a place analogous to Russia in the late 80s and early 90s. He enumerates some of the similarities: "a severe and chronic shortfall in the production of crude oil, a severe and worsening foreign trade deficit, a runaway military budget, and ballooning foreign debt", etc.

Right now I have neither the time nor the energy to fully dig into this article. Read it for yourself. The resurgence of interest in post-collapse societies (obviously previsaged by a revivified horde of new zombie movies) is very real: Fallout 3, anyone? [3] The questions which surround social collapse are serious questions and deserve more lengthy analysis and exegesis.

One aspect of social collapse which I'll finish this post talking about is the rise of organized crime.

As the protective power of the state recedes, the functions which were once handled by the state (waste disposal, physical protection, etc.) either get done by somebody else, or they don't get done at all. Into this power vaccuum steps anybody who is organized. In Berlin of the 1920s and 30s, the Communists provided services such as housing to people. However, it's rare that organizations spring up with a fully-formed political agenda. Usually political awareness is one of the later stages of organizational development. More likely are enterprises that organize around a more primitive (in the orthodox sense) forms of organization -- such as the feudalism of the crime "family".

The great socialist literary critic Frederic Jameson has written extensively that the fascination with the crime film genre has at its root a way of understanding and fantasizing about "primitive accumulation" i.e. the first stage of capitalism. [4] Anyone who's seen movies like the Godfather or Scarface (or played Grand Theft Auto) can tell you the basic narrative: young punk rises to the top of the cartel (capitalist enterprise) by brutally killing off rivals, taking over other people's businesses and turf, then living the high life at the top (until, presumably, they themselves are taken out by a young upstart). Myself, I have found it interesting how the gangster fantasy has been appropriated and remixed, so to speak, for a younger generation. The new film Gomorra, which looks at mob activities in Naples, has a sequence where these kids are acting out their fantasy of being Tony Montana. One could look at the appropriation of this imagery in hardcore hip hop for an analagous example.

What Jameson pointed out was that the supposedly reprehensible criminal enterprises such as gangs and the mafia were in fact capitalist enterprises no different than the robber barons of the 19th century. For example, in 1868, when American financer "Jay Gould was fighting Vanderbilt for control of the Erie Railroad, Gould and his men were forced to flee across the Hudson River in a rowboat, and barricaded themselves in a New Jersey hotel". Jay Gould would later bring the United States and Canada to the bring of war. That is to say, capitalist enterprises are just criminal enterprises writ large.

Even though the state marks certain areas as off-limits to capitalist enterprises (e.g. prostitution, drugs, etc.), enterprising capitalists get involved anyway -- if there is a profit to be made. The logic of capitalist development goes like this: after a phase of primitive accumulation (see above), there need to be some kind of game rules in order to prevent a cycle of continued violence. Thus, when the state begins to referee and regulate these enterprises, it cuts down on the level of competitive violence between corporate entities (crime "families", syndicates, etc.).

But if the state refuses to step in and regulate an industry for the capitalists, it becomes stuck in a repetitive pattern of primitive accumulation. This was (is?) something of the case in Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Ordinary business ventures became dangerous because the state had completely stepped back (or was rendered powerless) from many of its traditional roles.

If we are likely to witness a further tidal withdrawal of the state (as has already been forced with the attack on and diminution of the welfare state since the 1980s) in the coming months or years, we are also likely to see a correlative rise in criminal activity and specifically organized criminal activity.

Sure enough, Alternet reports that collusion of "illegitimate" criminal enterprises and "legal" business enterprises is increasing. Business owners are increasingly looking to organized crime to fill in the credit gap. A Mexican drug lord made the Forbes list of the world's richest human beings, while our southern neighbors face continued violence which threatens to both consume their government and spill over into US territory. The Mexican Economy Secretary even went so far as to speculate that if the government loses the current battle, "the next president of the republic would be a drug dealer"!

There are a whole bunch of other examples of this, but I don't have the time to list them all. Hopefully I can take on the issue of social provision in a blog post sometime in the near future; as I feel that leftwing organizations have a moral duty and a political imperative to begin setting up alternative economies of social provision to aid people in this period of economic contraction.


--------------------------------------------------------------


[1] I find a systemic, materialist analysis to be the most persuasive method of interpreting history. However, one should always be on guard against orthodoxy. I grew up around religious fundamentalists, and I have come to find that fundamentalist tendencies (e.g. the need to "go back" to the "original" texts or figures in a movement) cut across ideological boundaries. One should approach with great caution those who insist we ascribe to "what Marx said" or some other such nonsense.

[2] As a caveat, the progressive left-leaning techno-utopian James J. Hughes, author of Citizen Cyborg: Why Democratic Societies Must Respond to the Redesigned Human of the Future, writes of the need for healthy awareness of and skepticism toward the millennialist tendencies which arise when contemplating the future, and apocalyptic threats such as global climate change or social collapse. His essay is without a doubt the best short piece on millenialism and utopianism (and I should know, having read many of the studies he cites). We should take seriously his warning that when thinking about and discussing the future, we are prone to couldn't agree more, having witnessed firsthand the folks who stocked up on guns and bibles, thinking that Y2K was going to end civilization as we know it, as well as the folks on the other end of the spectrum who thought that casino capitalism would last forever.

[3] Regarding zombie-related puns, I will say only: *groooooan*

[4] These stages are not necessarily chronological. Long story. Read something like David Harvey's Limits to Capital.